Journalists and political pundits have been pulling groundless election predictions out of their butts left and right. I want in on the game. Bear with me while I give some background up to my prediction. If you are impatient, you can skip right to the point, bolded for your convenience, at the end of this article.
Ron Paul’s November 5th money bomb made big headlines, and started a wave of positive reporting as well as some incredibly negative smears stemming from recognition that he is now a serious contender with a lot of enthusiastic support. Judging from the numbers reported on teaparty07.com, it looks like Ron Paul’s December 16th fundraiser will be significantly bigger, possibly breaking all one-day fundraising records.
If the current trend continues, I have no doubt that many media outlets will become even more respectful of Ron Paul’s candidacy, and the conversations will evolve from whether or not Ron Paul will effect the race for the “first tier” candidates to whether or not he can win primaries. It’s already starting to shift in that direction, and it will have to continue if Ron Paul brings in another $5 million or more in one day.
But the important point of my prediction is about how the mainstream media will handle the “money bomb” attempts by supporters of other presidential candidates. In case you missed it, supporters of several other candidates have tried to outdo Ron Paul’s $4.38 million fundraising day, believing that if Ron Paul’s tiny band of lunatics can raise that kind of cash, then certainly their candidates, with such high percentages in the polls, can do even better.
Obama’s supporters had Barack’s Friday. 132 people pledged to contribute $100 on November 16th. When the day came, 72 people contributed a total of $4650. November 20th is Mike Huckabee’s big fundraising day. He has done significantly better with over 200 pledges and has raised over $110,000 as of this posting. Not bad. Perhaps the most embarrassing “money bomb” is Fred’s Giving Day, organized for Fred Thompson. So far, he has the smallest number of pledges, just 76, and the big day is tomorrow.
Dennis Kucinich supporters are also trying to raise some cash for the Democratic candidate, who has been continuously marginalized by the mainstream media. With more than 3 weeks to go, nearly 350 pledges have already come through. That far exceeds the levels of support shown for every other candidate, with the exception of Ron Paul. It would be unfair to dismiss Kucinich’s candidacy on the basis of low fundraiser numbers without also dismissing Obama’s or Thompson’s candidacy for their even lower numbers, right?
My prediction is this: On December 16th, when the mainstream media is in a frenzy over Ron Paul’s second record-breaking fundraiser, they will take the opportunity to ridicule Kucinich for falling far short of Ron Paul’s success, while making absolutely no mention of the other candidates who fared much worse and who truly have little or no serious grassroots support. This not only gives them the opportunity to belittle Kucinich, which they love to do, but it also allows them to keep Ron Paul in the “fringe candidate” category, rather than compare him, favorably, to the “first tier” candidates. Honest candidates, such as Kucinich and Paul, are always labeled “unelectable” by the mainstream media.
I am obviously a supporter of Ron Paul. But I am also a supporter of honest reporting and fair elections, which I think go hand-in-hand. The media’s manipulation of the news and the presidential debates, would be comical in its predictability, if it were not such an important part of our democracy. If I am right on December 16th, then I can pat myself on the back and tell all my friends how smart I am. If I am wrong, I can do what all of these other political wonks do – take comfort in knowing that in this internet age, where political opinions are a dime a dozen, no one will remember or care that I ever made this prediction in the first place.